Publications

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2016
Simões, S, Dias L, Seixas J, Gouveia JP.  2016.  INSMART, 15 November . UERA Workshop on “Sustainable Smart Cities”. , Barcelona, Spain: Smart City Expo
Dias, L, Seixas J, Gouveia JP, Simões S.  2016.  Integrative Smart City Planning – Energy system modelling at city scale, 13-15 July . 22nd Annual International Sustainable Development Research Society Conference . , Lisbon, Portugal
Fortes, P, Dias L, Seixas J.  2016.  The sustainability of future scenarios of the Portuguese power system, 13-15 July . 22nd Annual International Sustainable Development Research Society Conference . , Lisbon, Portugal
Chávez-Rodríguez, M, Dias L, Simoes S, Seixas J, Szklo A, Lucena FPA, Hawkes A.  2016.  Natural Gas Outlook for the Southern Cone: outcomes from an hourly basis TIMES natural gas & power model, 1-3 June. 35th International Energy Workshop. , Cork, Ireland
De Miglio, R, Chiodi A, Simoes S, Long G, Pollard M, Gouveia JP, Gargiulo M, Giannakidis G.  2016.  New methodological approach for planning cities sustainable and resilient energy futures – the case of the InSMART project, 1-3 June. International Energy Workshop. , Ireland: University College Cork
Thiel, C, Nijs W, Simões S, Schmidt J, van Zyl A, Schmid E.  2016.  The impact of the EU car CO2 regulation on the energy system and the role of electro-mobility to achieve transport decarbonisation. Energy Policy Journal. 96:153-166.
Simoes, SG, Gregório V, Seixas J.  2016.  Mapping fuel poverty in Portugal. Energy Procedia. 106:155–165.
Gouveia, JP, Seixas J.  2016.  Unraveling electricity consumption profiles in households through clusters: Combining smart meters and door-to-door surveys. Energy and Buildings. 116:666–676. AbstractWebsite

Improvements of energy efficiency and reduction of Electricity Consumption (EC) could be pushed by increased knowledge on consumption profiles. This paper contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the EC profiles in a Southwest European city through the combination of high-resolution data from smart meters (daily electricity consumption) with door-to-door 110-question surveys for a sample of 265 households in the city of Évora, in Portugal. This analysis allowed to define ten power consumption clusters using Ward's method hierarchical clustering, corresponding to four distinct types of annual consumption profiles: U shape (sharp and soft), W shape and Flat. U shape pattern is the most common one, covering 77% of the sampled households.
The results show that three major groups of determinants characterize the electricity consumption segmentation: physical characteristics of a dwelling, especially year of construction and floor area; HVAC equipment and fireplaces ownership and use; and occupants’ profiles (mainly number and monthly income).
The combination of the daily EC data with qualitative door-to-door survey-based data proved to be a powerful data nutshell to distinguish groups of power consumers, allowing to derive insights to support DSOs, ESCOs, and retailers to design measures and instruments targeted to effective energy reduction (e.g. peak shaving, energy efficiency).

2015
Gregório, V, Simões S, Seixas J.  2015.  Trade- offs between climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for resilient cities: the case of thermal comfort in households under the ClimAdapt.Local project, 2-4 September. World Symposium on Climate Change Adaption. , Manchester, United Kingdom
Gouveia, JP, Seixas J, Shiming L, Bilo N, Valentim A.  2015.  Understanding electricity consumption patterns in households through data fusion of smart meters and door-to-door surveys, 1–6 June. eceee 2015 Summer Study on energy efficiency. , Club Belambra Les Criques, Presqu’île de Giens. Toulon/Hyères, France: ECEEE
Simoes, S, Fortes P, Dias L, Seixas J.  2015.  Assessing critical metal needs for a low carbon energy system in 2050, 19-22 May. EEM15. 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market. , Lisbon, Portugal
Seixas, J.  2015.  Energy systems and the planetary boundaries: extending the capabilities of energy systems models, 19-22 May. EEM15. 12the International Conference on the European Energy Market. , Lisbon, Portugal
Fortes, P, Proença S, Seixas J.  2015.  How renewable energy promotion impacts the Portuguese economy?, 19-22 May EEM15. 12the International Conference on the European Energy Market. , Lisbon, Portugal
Gouveia, JP, Seixas J, Mendes L, Shiming L.  2015.  Looking Deeper into Residential Electricity Consumption Profiles: The Case of Évora, 19-22 May. EEM15. 12th International Conference on the European Energy market. , Lisbon
Seixas, J.  2015.  Are hybrid models well equipped to assess resilience to external shocks? The case of energy and climate., 1 June INFER Workshop on Modelling Economic Resilience to External Shocks. , Business and Economics Department, University of the Azores. Ponta Delgada
Seixas, J, Simões S, Dias L, Kanudia A, Fortes P, Gargiulo M.  2015.  Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling. Energy Policy. 80(May 2015):165-176. AbstractWebsite

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered alternatives to internal combustion engines due to their energy efficiency and contribution to CO2 mitigation. The adoption of EVs depends on consumer preferences, including cost, social status and driving habits, although it is agreed that current and expected costs play a major role. We use a partial equilibrium model that minimizes total energy system costs to assess whether EVs can be a cost-effective option for the consumers of each EU27 member state up to 2050, focusing on the impact of different vehicle investment costs and CO2 mitigation targets. We found that for an EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction cap of 40% and 70% by 2050 vis-à-vis 1990 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are cost-effective in the EU only by 2030 and only if their costs are 30% lower than currently expected. At the EU level, vehicle costs and the capability to deliver both short- and long-distance mobility are the main drivers of BEV deployment. Other drivers include each state’s national mobility patterns and the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation options, both in the transport sector, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or biofuels, and in other sectors, such as renewable electricity.

Fortes, P, Alvarenga A, Seixas J, Rodrigues S.  2015.  Long term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy Modeling. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 91:161-178.Website
Simoes, S, Huppes G, Seixas J.  2015.  A Tangled Web: Assessing overlaps between energy and environmental policy instruments along the electricity supply chain. Environmental Policy and Governance.
Glynn, J, Fortes P, Krook-Riekkola A, Labriet M, Vielle M, Kypreos S, Lehtilä A, Mischke P, Dai H, Gargiulo M, Helgesen PI, Kober T, Summerton P, Merven B, Selosse S, Karlsson K, Strachan N, ÓGallachóir B.  2015.  Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System—Global Perspectives. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. 30(George Giannakidis, Labriet, Maryse, Brian ÓGallachóir, GianCarlo Tosato, Eds.).:333-358.: Springer International Publishing Abstract
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Glynn, J, Fortes P, Krook-Riekkola A, Labriet M, Vielle M, Kypreos S, Lehtilä A, Mischke P, Dai H, Gargiulo M, Helgesen PI, Kober T, Summerton P, Merven B, Selosse S, Karlsson K, Strachan N, ÓGallachóir B.  2015.  Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System—National Perspectives. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. 30(George Giannakidis, Labriet, Maryse, Brian ÓGallachóir, GianCarlo Tosato, Eds.).:359-387.: Springer International Publishing Abstract
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Chiodi, A, Taylor PG, Seixas J, Simões S, Fortes P, Gouveia JP, Dias L, ÓGallachóir B.  2015.  Energy Policies Influenced by Energy Systems Modelling—Case Studies in UK, Ireland, Portugal and G8. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. 30(George Giannakidis, Labriet, Maryse, Brian ÓGallachóir, GianCarlo Tosato, Eds.).:15-41.: Springer International Publishing Abstract
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Kempener, R, Assoumou E, Chiodi A, Ciorba U, Gaeta M, Gielen D, Hamasaki H, Kanudia A, Kober T, Labriet M, Maïzi N, ÓGallachóir B, Saygin D, Seixas J, Wagner N, Wright E.  2015.  A Global Renewable Energy Roadmap: Comparing Energy Systems Models with IRENA’s REmap 2030 Project. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. 30(George Giannakidis, Labriet, Maryse, Brian ÓGallachóir, GianCarlo Tosato, Eds.).:43-67.: Springer International Publishing Abstract
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Nijs, W, Simoes S, Sgobbi A, Ruiz-Castello P, Thiel C, Giannakidis G, Mantzaris J, Tigas K, Dimitroulas D, Georgilakis P, Vournas C.  2015.  Improved Representation of the European Power Grid in Long Term Energy System Models: Case Study of JRC-EU-TIMES. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. 30(George Giannakidis, Labriet, Maryse, Brian ÓGallachóir, GianCarlo Tosato, Eds.).:201-222.: Springer International Publishing Abstract
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2014
Gouveia, JP, Dias L, Martins I, Seixas J.  2014.  Effects of renewables penetration on the security of Portuguese electricity supply. Applied Energy. 123:438–447. AbstractWebsite

The increase of renewables in power sector, together with the increase of their electricity share in final energy consumption, is changing our perception about energy security with diverse and contradictory statements. The Portuguese security of electricity supply is analyzed in this study by comparing selected indicators for 2. years before and after the high increase of onshore wind since 2005. Our goal is to find how the security of electricity supply was impacted by the penetration of renewables, taking a supply chain approach. Our analysis highlights that the penetration of renewables has decreased the energy dependence of the power sector by more than 20% between 2004 and 2011, while risks related to the concentration of natural gas suppliers and to the still-high share of fossil fuels suffering from price volatility are discussed. We observed a significant improvement in power interconnections with Spain, as well as an increase of the de-rated generation capacity margin, allowing proper management of renewable power intermittency if necessary, thereby improving power security. Although the share of intermittent renewables almost quadrupled in total installed capacity between those years, the indicators reveal an improvement in the quality of transport and distribution when delivering electricity to end-users. Although electricity prices increased, mainly due to taxes, the lack of energy efficiency is an aspect deserving improvement to alleviate the pressure on electricity security, mainly at high peak demands.

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