Models and Tools
TIMES-PT | TIMES_IBERIA | TIMES_Évora | GEM-E3_PT | BLD-ADAPT
TIMES_PT is a technology rich, bottom-up model generator, which uses linear-programming to produce a least-cost energy system to satisfy the demand for energy services, optimized according to a number of user constraints (e.g. CO2 emissions cap), over medium to long-term time horizons. TIMES_PT characterizes the entire chain of the Portuguese energy system from 2005 to 2050 (in 5-year steps), including energy imports and production (e.g., oil and bio refineries), transformation (e.g., power and heat production), distribution, exports and end-use consumption, in industry, residential, services, agriculture and transport sectors and their respective sub-sectors.
TIMES_PT has been developed since 2004 and has benefited from the peer-review of numerous national partners from industrial sectors, power production, oil refining and end-use energy sectors. TIMES_PT model informed climate policy in Portugal in the last 10 years and has supported the design of climate mitigation policies.
The development of the TIMES_PT model started within the EU research project NEEDS and the national research project E2POL. Although its implementation was motivated by research goals, during the past decade the model has become a major tool supporting national climate mitigation policies, and to a lesser extent, air pollution policies. The Low Carbon Roadmap 2050 is a flagship policy document currently used as the Portuguese long term view on mitigation goals, while the PNAC— National Plan on Climate Change includes the visions up to 2030 from stakeholders from other policy areas, as transportation and industry. The negotiations for the revisions of the National Emission Ceilings Directive for 2020 and 2030, as well as the National Strategy for Air Quality (2015) were supported by projections generated by TIMES_PT. More recently, TIMES_PT was linked with a national CGE model, which has motivated its use in the Green Taxation Reform.
TIMES model generator was developed by IEA-ETSAP.
The TIMES_IBERIA bottom-up technical-economic equilibrium is a model that integrates the entire energy/emissions system of two countries (Spain and Portugal) and its possible long-term developments until 2050 (with 5 years time steps), linked through trade of the main energy commodities The base year of the model is 2005, and the model is calibrated to energy statistics for the 2005 to 2010 horizon as regards power plant capacity, electricity production, final energy consumption and energy commodities trading. TIMES_IBERIA was extracted from the Pan-European TIMES model-PET36 created with TIMES model generator developed by Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) of the International Energy Agency and it was updated and calibrated within the EU FP7 COMET project.
The TIMES_Évora is a city specific energy system model, which comprehensively represent Évora municipality energy systems, focusing on energy use in residential and non-residential buildings, transport systems and other energy uses (e.g. public lighting, small-scale industry etc.). It also will represent the city waste chain and water and sewage systems in what concerns its energy consumption. The key objective of the model is the identification of an optimum mix of applicable measures and technologies that will pave the way towards the achievement of the cities’ sustainable targets.
GEM-E3 (General Equilibrium Model for Economy, Energy, Environment) is a multi-regional, multi-sector, recursive dynamic CGE model, describing the interactions between economy, energy and environment. The model computes the equilibrium price of goods, services, labor and capital that simultaneously clear all markets and optimize the behavior of economic agents.
GEM-E3_PT corresponds to a single country version of the model, covering the Portuguese economy. It is based on data for the benchmark year 2005, combining the Portuguese economic Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), from national account statistics and input - output tables, with price and physical energy data and GHG emissions (CO2, CH4 and N2O), from national energy balance and emissions inventories, respectively. The model includes 18 production sectors including agriculture, energy industries (comprising oil refinery and power and heat production), iron & steel industry, land transport, services of credit and insurances, among others.
BLD_ADAPT is a bottom-up simulation tool that computes the useful and final energy needs for space heating and cooling for dwellings, considering current and future characteristics of buildings, of heating and cooling technologies, climatic conditions and desired indoor thermal comfort. The tool is built at the scale of the Portuguese civil parishes and considers the detailed socio-economic characteristics of their inhabitants which are used to calculate vulnerability to climate change and energy poverty. BLD_ADAPT estimates GHG emissions and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation options. It was initiated within the project ClimAdaPT.Local, and further developed to be used as a High Spatial Scale resolution tool for Energy Poverty Vulnerability Assessment, Climate CHange Vulnerability, Energy Efficiency and Retrofitting Measures assessment
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