Change is happening at an ever faster rate today, driven partly by technological changes leading to changes in all other areas of our lives. Today’s global trends, uncertainties, and surprises have the potential to significantly change the way the world works tomorrow. Shaping the world we want to live in means being more aware of the future and seeking better approaches. In such increasingly uncertain environment, planning uncertainties force policy and decision makers to foster future-oriented technology analyses (FTA) by using foresight methodologies. FTA can help us react on the likely directions of technologies, manage the risks involved and shape technological trajectories in order to improve the long term benefits to society. Foresight methodologies seek to gather data and make sense of it so that people can think in different and new ways about the future. That data might be collected from humans or from the analysis of documents and artefacts, or both. The data might be analysed using qualitative or quantitative techniques, or both. To be used in strategy processes, however, data needs to be analysed, interpreted and used in ways that make sense to the organisation. There is no single set of methods used in all foresight activities. The methods used need to reflect the resources available and the objectives of the exercise. The choice of methods is critical, though it often appears to be based upon what is fashionable or which practitioners have experience in. The methods may be organised and interrelated in different ways. In other terms, the conduct of foresight analyses needs to be tailored to the type. The first thing to do is to choose the right methods which are most appropriate to the analysis and technology characteristics. One of the substantial advances has been a move away from a tool or method driven approach to one which relies on the selection of tools in accord with their appropriateness for the particular issue being examined, their relative strengths and limitations. Thus, the experience of observing so many developing nations attempting to conduct a Japanese style Delphi survey, with an extremely limited number of ‘experts’ and doubtful relevance of estimated technology realisation times to their economy, indicates the need to develop foresight appropriate to local conditions. Their use and contribution will be determined primarily by the values, structures and cultures of the organisations applying them. This paper will try to discuss the importance of future oriented technology analysis, in particularly technology foresight, and the question of how to select the best methodology among the existing ones. Although this paper intends to lay a framework and cover the tools used in technology futures analysis, in particularly emerging air transportation technologies, a full understanding of each of these tools is out of this paper. The conduct of analysis needs to be tailored to the type. The first thing to do is to choose the right tools which are most appropriate to the analysis and the technology characteristics. Thus, we have to set the criteria and figure out key aspects and factors for designing our research. In our case, the key aspects and factors are: it is a long term vision for 10-15 years later; an emerging air transportation mode; a socio- technological system of systems in transportation area which is composed of resources and stakeholders network, drivers and disruptors; and also normative, both qualitative and quantitative, national and global. The probably research tools that can be used are; agent based modelling, cost benefit analysis, scenarios, impact analysis, case study (Visioning), subjective judgement, roadmap, interviews, benefit visualization tool, literature reviews, and attending conferences.

The goal of technology assessment (TA) is to lend support to society and policy making by promoting understanding of the problems related to the grand sociotechnical challenges of our time, as well as to assess the available options for managing them. Researchers from Japan and Europe reflected together in this book on country-specific developments to identify the conditions that must be present to anchor TA in science, politics, and society. This book helps us to learn about different cultures.

Future Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) has been visible in railway planning since 2001. Over a dozen reports have been produced in the past thirteen years, the majority being descriptive endogenous technocentric visions. They have played a role in the revitalization of the sector, predominantly relating to collective alignments and interdependencies in choice and form of the technological path the various stakeholders’ follow to achieve policy goals. A striking example is the case of ERRAC visions, where strategic agendas and roadmaps greatly impacted the high-speed train technology transition from the second to the third generation of vehicles. However, today’s socio-economic events have revealed the limitations of previously applied FTA fall short for railways. In particular, there is an inability to bridge technocentric visions with the societal challenges that are becoming increasingly prominent on the policy agenda. To fill this FTA-need in railways it is here proposed a role for constructive technology assessment as bridging function towards achieving success in the transition to a next generation of high-speed trains. The findings here presented result from the analysis of reports and interviews with their commissioning institutions and drafters.

This working paper aimed to understand the importance and the role of Industry for the Portuguese' economic recovery, integrated in a context of progressive deindustrialisation over the last few years, and simultaneously an impressive growth and domain over some production sectors by emergent countries, associated with the 2008 crisis. We intended to analyse this problematic in both national and European levels, bringing into context the national industry, identifying the causes for the progressive abandon of the industry and its consequences. To identify the main stakeholders and their role on the reindustrialization process. To identify policies and instruments contributing to the promotion of this reindustrialisation and main conclusions.

Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) is a normative concept that has captured considerable attention on the Science and Technology (S&T) policy level, but also in academic discourses. It represents a new approach to how science, innovation and research can be shaped in accordance with societal values that builds directly on the concepts and methodologies of Technology Assessment (TA). The definition and operationalization aspects of RRI remain still unclear although key ingredients such as ethical acceptability are well established in S&T debates and embrace a spectrum of standard methodological approaches. In this paper we review the conceptual debate on RRI with a focus on its constituent parts. We then present a functional comparison between RRI and TA that proves the considerable conceptual overlap in the two approaches. We argue that TA methodologies and precepts should be employed as key operationalisational features in RRI. Finally we argue for a global perspective on RRI by describing a case study on global ethics in S&T that introduces an analytical framework for ethics debates.

The paper aims to understand the degree of transition towards e-mobility. The assumption is that the degree of convergence between actors of each system (batteries, vehicles, grid, policies, business models and consumers) is an indicator of changes in the present socio-technical regime. After an introduction to the socio-technical transition towards e-mobility, the paper presents and discusses three technology assessment approaches to several projects related to technology, society and politics. There are several thematic crossovers between all projects presented leading to a synergetic technology assessment. This output results from the overlapping areas between the cases and can be used to first assess the extent of changes in the present socio-technical regime, as well as to extract standards and regulations, acceptance/risk analyses and behaviour changes that could be significant in the context of a transition towards electric mobility.

We wonder how it is possible to use the Electroencephalogram (EEG) as a TA instrument, rather than a diagnosis procedure, to evaluate how children hear the sounds. The first concern was related to the definition of concepts, namely the primary and secondary objectives, the importance of the study, the materials and equipment, the procedures, the criteria for inclusion and exclusion and the expected outcomes. We present the main research questions, the proposed methodology and report the first steps of the practical work, some results and a few considerations about the thesis next development.

Healthcare systems are characterized by a rapid technology push and demand. Most decisions taken in this field usually are accompanied by risk and uncertainties. Due to financial constrains (common in every healthcare system), all decision must be made based on evidences of reliable studies. It may be not possible to know the future needs of healthcare systems in general, but it should be possible to foreseen them. This paper aims to shed some light on how prospective analysis can be an adding tool for the decision-making process, by enhancing exploratory and strategic dimension of planning and managing in a sensitive field such as healthcare. In order to provide for a simple overview on foresight exercises applied to health, this paper presents two study-cases that applied different methods. Since different foresight methods were applied, a comparative case-study analysis was applied, taking into consideration the following aspects of the exercise: aim, methodology, stakeholders and outputs. The specific objectives of this report are: to explore the usage of foresight methods applied to healthcare level in two different countries and therefore to understand if there are any similarities in the approach; and based on the analysis results, to develop recommendations for healthcare level decision-making in general. The results of this report can be useful for a better understanding on how foresight methods can be applied in healthcare and their importance. This article can help healthcare professionals, providing them a glimpse of some steps on the use of these foresight methods, so they can be more alert for foresight methodological framework and their practical applications. The knowledge on how to apply foresight methodology can be a differential and potential asset of a well-organized and informed institution, as well as an asset for a shared and participative strategic planning.

The ongoing German energy transition causes a higher demand for reliable energy storage in the future. This increasing demand for sustainable, cheap, safe and efficient energy storage systems has caused a stronger public debate about the potential benefits of grid battery storage according to sustainability. This circumstance led to the preposition that there is a need for the development of a proper ex-ante assessment strategy to support technology uptake. The developed approach represents a framework for prospective system analysis (PSA) using the heuristics of constructive technology assessment to identify consequences, application possibilities or threats in the technological trajectory of grid battery storage. Within this framework PSA is used to quantitatively assess economic, environmental and social aspects along the entire life cycle of electrochemical energy storage technologies in order to identify hotspots according to sustainability. The Analytic Hierarchic Process (AHP) supports multiple methods in data collection and enables the analyst to combine results from PSA with qualitative actor notions about technology according to the “world” where it is embodied. In this sense AHP enables to achieve an optimum construct of technology from a stakeholder view point. The developed approach represents an efficient research strategy to shape technology in a sustainable way in frame of „Responsible Research and Innovation“.

Technology assessment is essentially an approach, a collective of the systematic methods used to scientifically investigate the conditions for and the consequences of technology and technicising and to denote their societal evaluation. It is an investigation about the technological developments as well as an evaluation of its potential impacts on society. The assessment of emerging technologies, however, requires special attention. Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) is an emerging technology which allows for the direct communication between the brain and an external device. It is a truly direct connection, with no use of the normal output pathways of peripheral nerves and muscles, allowing for the brain to have control over objects and software without intermediates. To address these kinds of technologies at early stages of development, Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA), a member of Technology Assessment approaches, has been considered as one of the most fitting approaches. As an emerging technology, BCI is at its early stages of research and thus many challenges are still ahead. Mainstream adoption is not expected in least 10 years many challenges are yet to be overcome. Therefore, the objective of this article is to discuss and present a methodological approach to assess brain-computer interface technology considering constructive technology assessment and future oriented technology analysis as the main processes to undertake the assessment. The assessment will focus only on the non-invasive type of BCI and for medical applications in three defined areas: Communication & Control, Motor Substitution and Motor Recovery for a time horizon of 10 years, 2022. These areas were chosen based on the capability of BCI to serve as a replacement of normal neuromuscular pathways. That makes it one of the best technologies to help people in activating and controlling assistive technologies which enable communication and control of the environment. However, the real impacts of BCI will depend directly on the development of competing technologies, and also on the improvement in BCI research. Only then, the potential applications and end users could grow dramatically.

Four categories of innovations have been identified by Freeman and Perez: incremental innovations, radical innovations, new technological systems (systemic innovations), and technological revolutions or new techno-economic paradigms. New techno-economic paradigms represent changes in technological systems that are so far-reaching in their effects that they have a major influence on the behaviour of the entire economy. Scarcity of oil and external costs like global warming are the key arguments and the main drivers of the change of the current paradigm. They will affect especially the mobility of individuals and the interlinked business models. Novel business models within newly created markets will raise e.g. extended mobility services, activities aiming at the infrastructure, new opportunities in the field of energy transmission and supply and even new strategies of recycling, reusing or reducing the use of resources in order to address global scarcity issues. Especially for the established players of the automotive industry like original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) or 1st and 2nd tier suppliers this implicates opportunities and risks at the same time. But also new players will get the chance to create and enter new markets with new or extended products or services and lead the new value chain. This paper compiles and evaluates current approaches and business models of selected OEMs together with upcoming players. Additionally their positions within the existing value chain are being analyzed and classified. Bringing together the identified drivers of changes with current trends within the automotive industry the authors also show new concepts of extended business models, e.g. the idea of an ecosystem, that have the potential to cause an additional shift of power within the global mobility value chain.

In this work we propose the use of Social Network Analysis to understand the positioning of the concept of Open Innovation in the literature, offering thereby a complementary approach to existing literature review up to now. The main motivation of this network analysis is to contribute to the understanding of the concept of Open Innovation, with its spread to different areas of knowledge over the years and its relationship with other concepts in the literature. Some 403 articles published in the database of the Science Direct during the years 2003 to 2011 were analyzed. The data was collected separately by year, considering the following information: journals in which the articles were published; countries of origin of the articles’ authors, keywords of these articles and year of publication. The results reveal the intense growth of the use of the words "Open Innovation" in articles from different areas of knowledge, as well as its increasing interconnection with other concepts, allowing the understanding of its diffusion in the literature.

The present work deals with the use of innovation indicators in the decision-making process. It intends to contribute to the discussion on the construction, use and analysis of indicator systems and also to evaluate its weight on decision-making in innovation. The goal is to help understand how innovation indicators can influence technology policy and through it, society at large. This work will start by analysing the use of indicators (their problems and consistency) and other sources of information that contribute to build the opinions of innovation decision makers. This will be followed by a survey and interviews with main innovation actors. The results will shed light on the impact of the use of indicators by the innovation community – both in terms of technology policy and in the social sphere. Proposals and implications for the future will be advanced, hopefully adding new contributions to the governance of the science, technology and innovation field.

In order to understand the decision-making process in a Radiology Department, taking the Magnetic Resonance Equipment as an example, this paper reports a project to be followed. It is a guideline for future work development regarding Technology Assessment in Radiology. The Theoretical Framework is divided is three big issues. The first is “Technology Assessment”. Starting with the definition of some important concepts, the history and development of Technology Assessment will be addressed. The aim of this issue is to give a general main idea concerning TA contextualization. Doing a transposition of this subject to health area, it is also important to understand the particularities of Health Technology Assessment, second issue. Portugal framework on this subject will also be addressed. As so, the Portuguese National Health System is characterized and the decision-making stakeholders identified, has well as the competences for the decision-making process in general. The third issue is Decision-Making and its aim is to give a general elucidation on decision-making matters. To accomplish this, a research methodology was outlined, so that six research questions could be answered and five hypotheses could be accepted or refuted, in the future. With this research methodology, the Portuguese state of the art Magnetic Resonance equipment existence will be studied, using a survey as a resource. In the future, a mapping stakeholder technique will be used to identify the decision making key stakeholders and a survey will be applied to map theirs skills and competences in the process, where a pre-test was already applied. The results of this pre-test are presented.

At the beginning of the 21st century there are new expectations and challenges towards Technology Assessment (TA). Among these there is a new awareness on TA issues in education, in particular at universities. While TA was mainly an activity at extra-universitarian research institutions for a long time now there are new developments and initiative towards integrating TA issues in university courses. We will first give an insight into the international development. Secondly we will focus on the “TA and education” landscape in Germany and Portugal in more detail, followed by a description of new and emerging forms of cooperation between Portugal and Germany in this field which might serve as a model or an example for further cooperation between other partners.

The ideas of ‘responsible development’ in the scientific-technological advance and of ‘responsible innovation’ in the field of new products, services and systems have been discussed for some years now with increasing intensity (Siune et al. 2009) and led to the phrase of ‘Responsible Research and Innovation’ (RRI). The postulate of responsible innovation adds explicit ethical reflection to Technology Assessment (TA) and science, technology and society (STS) studies and includes all of them into integrative approaches to shaping technology and innovation. Responsible innovation brings together TA with its experiences on assessment procedures, actor involvement, foresight and evaluation with ethics, in particular under the framework of responsibility, and also builds on the body of knowledge about R&D and innovation processes provided by STS and STIS studies (science, technology, innovation and society). Ethical reflection and technology assessment are increasingly taken up as integrative part of R&Dprogrammes (Siune et al. 2009). Science institutions, including research funding agencies, have started taking a pro-active role in promoting integrative research and development. Thus, the governance of science and of R&D processes is changing which opens up new possibilities and opportunities for involving new actors and new types of reflection. In this paper I want to demonstrate at a more conceptual level that Responsible Innovation can build on experiences and knowledge provided by the three mentioned fields of research: ethics, technology assessment, and STS respective STIS studies. To this end I will start by a brief analysis of the thematic dimensions included in the notion of responsibility and the respective disciplinary approaches to explore and investigate them (Sec. 2). The field of technology assessment is then introduced as a major origin of the Responsible Innovation movement including already some of the main ideas behind Responsible Innovation (Sec. 3). Based on the TA tradition Responsible Innovation may be characterized as a broadened extension of technology assessment complemented by ethics and STS (Sec. 4). As an illustration, the field of Synthetic Biology is introduced (Sec. 5).

The present article posits constructive technology assessment as the dominant perspective of societal embedding practices in the technical development process by the high-speed train manufacturing industry, resulting from a research study conducted in 2011 (Moretto 2011). The article covers the main elements of the study, being the high-speed train manufacturing industry’s strategic intelligence, technology pattern, knowledge exchange, technology trajectories; and finally presents the arguments justifying constructive technology assessment as the dominant approach.