By Type: Journal Article

Fortes, P, Alvarenga A, Seixas J, Rodrigues S.  2015.  Long term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy Modeling. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 91:161-178.Website
Seixas, J, Simões S, Dias L, Kanudia A, Fortes P, Gargiulo M.  2015.  Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling. Energy Policy. 80(May 2015):165-176. AbstractWebsite

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered alternatives to internal combustion engines due to their energy efficiency and contribution to CO2 mitigation. The adoption of EVs depends on consumer preferences, including cost, social status and driving habits, although it is agreed that current and expected costs play a major role. We use a partial equilibrium model that minimizes total energy system costs to assess whether EVs can be a cost-effective option for the consumers of each EU27 member state up to 2050, focusing on the impact of different vehicle investment costs and CO2 mitigation targets. We found that for an EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction cap of 40% and 70% by 2050 vis-à-vis 1990 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are cost-effective in the EU only by 2030 and only if their costs are 30% lower than currently expected. At the EU level, vehicle costs and the capability to deliver both short- and long-distance mobility are the main drivers of BEV deployment. Other drivers include each state’s national mobility patterns and the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation options, both in the transport sector, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or biofuels, and in other sectors, such as renewable electricity.

Simoes, S, Huppes G, Seixas J.  2015.  A Tangled Web: Assessing overlaps between energy and environmental policy instruments along the electricity supply chain. Environmental Policy and Governance.
Fortes, P, Pereira R, Pereira A, Seixas J.  2014.  Integrated technological-economic modeling platform for energy and climate policy analysis. Energy. 73:716–730.: Elsevier Ltd AbstractWebsite

CGE (computable general equilibrium) and bottom-up models each have unique strengths and weakness in evaluating energy and climate policies. This paper describes the development of an integrated technological, economic modeling platform (HYBTEP), built through the soft-link between the bottom-up TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM system) and the CGE GEM-E3 models. HYBTEP combines cost minimizing energy technology choices with macroeconomic responses, which is essential for energy-climate policy assessment. HYBTEP advances on other hybrid tools by assuming 'full-form' models, integrating detailed and extensive technology data with disaggregated economic structure, and 'full-link', i.e., covering all economic sectors. Using Portugal as a case study, we examine three scenarios: (i) the current energy-climate policy, (ii) a CO2 tax, and (iii) renewable energy subsidy, with the objective of assessing the advantages of HYBTEP vis-à-vis bottom-up approach. Results show that the economic framework in HYBTEP partially offsets the increase or decrease in energy costs from the policy scenarios, while TIMES is very sensitive to energy services-price elasticities, setting a wide range of results. HYBTEP allows the computation of the economic impacts of policies in a technological detailed environment. The hybrid platform increases transparency of policy analysis by making explicit the mechanisms through which energy demand evolves, resulting in high confidence for decision-making. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Gouveia, JP, Dias L, Martins I, Seixas J.  2014.  Effects of renewables penetration on the security of Portuguese electricity supply. Applied Energy. 123:438–447. AbstractWebsite

The increase of renewables in power sector, together with the increase of their electricity share in final energy consumption, is changing our perception about energy security with diverse and contradictory statements. The Portuguese security of electricity supply is analyzed in this study by comparing selected indicators for 2. years before and after the high increase of onshore wind since 2005. Our goal is to find how the security of electricity supply was impacted by the penetration of renewables, taking a supply chain approach. Our analysis highlights that the penetration of renewables has decreased the energy dependence of the power sector by more than 20% between 2004 and 2011, while risks related to the concentration of natural gas suppliers and to the still-high share of fossil fuels suffering from price volatility are discussed. We observed a significant improvement in power interconnections with Spain, as well as an increase of the de-rated generation capacity margin, allowing proper management of renewable power intermittency if necessary, thereby improving power security. Although the share of intermittent renewables almost quadrupled in total installed capacity between those years, the indicators reveal an improvement in the quality of transport and distribution when delivering electricity to end-users. Although electricity prices increased, mainly due to taxes, the lack of energy efficiency is an aspect deserving improvement to alleviate the pressure on electricity security, mainly at high peak demands.

Simoes, S, Seixas J, Fortes P, Huppes G.  2014.  The savings of energy saving: Interactions between energy supply and demand-side options-quantification for Portugal. Energy Efficiency. 7:179–201. Abstract


Fortes, P, Simões S, Seixas J, Regemorter DV, Ferreira F.  2013.  Top-down and bottom-up modelling to support low-carbon scenarios: climate policy implications. Climate Policy. 13:285–304., Number 3 AbstractWebsite


Gouveia, JP, Seixas J, Labriet M, Fortes P, Gargiulo M.  2013.  Prospective scenarios for the adoption of CCS technologies in the Iberian Peninsula. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments. 2:31–41. AbstractWebsite


Gouveia, JP, Fortes P, Seixas J.  2012.  Projections of energy services demand for residential buildings: Insights from a bottom-up methodology. Energy. 47:430–442., Number 1: Elsevier Ltd AbstractWebsite


Simões, S, Cleto J, Fortes P, Seixas J, Huppes G.  2008.  Cost of energy and environmental policy in Portuguese CO2 abatement—scenario analysis to 2020. Energy Policy. 36:3598–3611., Number 9 AbstractWebsite