The increase of renewables in power sector, together with the increase of their electricity share in final energy consumption, is changing our perception about energy security with diverse and contradictory statements. The Portuguese security of electricity supply is analyzed in this study by comparing selected indicators for 2. years before and after the high increase of onshore wind since 2005. Our goal is to find how the security of electricity supply was impacted by the penetration of renewables, taking a supply chain approach. Our analysis highlights that the penetration of renewables has decreased the energy dependence of the power sector by more than 20% between 2004 and 2011, while risks related to the concentration of natural gas suppliers and to the still-high share of fossil fuels suffering from price volatility are discussed. We observed a significant improvement in power interconnections with Spain, as well as an increase of the de-rated generation capacity margin, allowing proper management of renewable power intermittency if necessary, thereby improving power security. Although the share of intermittent renewables almost quadrupled in total installed capacity between those years, the indicators reveal an improvement in the quality of transport and distribution when delivering electricity to end-users. Although electricity prices increased, mainly due to taxes, the lack of energy efficiency is an aspect deserving improvement to alleviate the pressure on electricity security, mainly at high peak demands.

European policy has acknowledged the significance of local and regional communities for the
deployment of new low carbon technologies and their potential for sustainable energy production and use.
Several initiatives and programmes (e.g. Covenant of Mayors) have been set up to engage European cities in the
effort towards a low carbon future. At the same time, there is a critical need to improve comprehensive city
planning driven by an integrated approach and focused on cost benefit assessment towards sustainable energy
use. Hence, innovative tools and models to assess and perform in-depth analysis of the alternative measures
towards efficient energy use, will help pave the way to fully capture the potential of each city in the most
efficient (economically, socially and technically) way.
The InSMART concept brings together four European cities: Évora (Portugal), Cesena (Italy), Nottingham (UK)
and Trikala (Greece), and scientific organizations of these countries, to establish a methodology for enhancing
sustainable planning for city needs through an integrative and multidisciplinary planning approach, aiming to
developing detailed sustainable energy action plans. Such an approach will identify the optimum mix of short,
medium and long term projects and investments, addressing the efficiency of energy flows across various city
sectors with regards to economic, environmental and social criteria and will highlight priority actions.
Tools and models, like Geographic Information System, buildings models (CitySim and EnergyPlus) and
transport-based energy and carbon model, as well as a technological partial equilibrium energy model (TIMES),
are used to analyse, all the relevant sectors (buildings, industries, transports, waste and water management).
Furthermore, the cities buildings stocks are being characterized through an extensive 110-question survey
(around 410 door-to-door interviews) and will be modelled through a typology approach. Four hundred 20-
question surveys are also being carried out to evaluate transport and mobility patterns, supported on travel diaries and fulfilling different quotas for several variables (geographic location, days of the week, age and working
status) in order to assure representativeness of the data collected.
The main differences between rural and urban areas results from the building surveys and high-resolution
electricity consumption from smart meters for the Portuguese city of Évora are highlighted.

CGE (computable general equilibrium) and bottom-up models each have unique strengths and weakness in evaluating energy and climate policies. This paper describes the development of an integrated technological, economic modeling platform (HYBTEP), built through the soft-link between the bottom-up TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM system) and the CGE GEM-E3 models. HYBTEP combines cost minimizing energy technology choices with macroeconomic responses, which is essential for energy-climate policy assessment. HYBTEP advances on other hybrid tools by assuming 'full-form' models, integrating detailed and extensive technology data with disaggregated economic structure, and 'full-link', i.e., covering all economic sectors. Using Portugal as a case study, we examine three scenarios: (i) the current energy-climate policy, (ii) a CO2 tax, and (iii) renewable energy subsidy, with the objective of assessing the advantages of HYBTEP vis-à-vis bottom-up approach. Results show that the economic framework in HYBTEP partially offsets the increase or decrease in energy costs from the policy scenarios, while TIMES is very sensitive to energy services-price elasticities, setting a wide range of results. HYBTEP allows the computation of the economic impacts of policies in a technological detailed environment. The hybrid platform increases transparency of policy analysis by making explicit the mechanisms through which energy demand evolves, resulting in high confidence for decision-making. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

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