Publications

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2010
Dias, L, Gouveia J, Maurício B, Fortes P, Seixas J.  2010.  The impact of Climate Change Mitigation Options on Air Pollutant Emissions in Portugal, 24 June. Semiannual ETSAP Meeting 2010. , Stockholm, Sweden: KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Gouveia, JP, Fortes P, Seixas J.  2010.  Forecasting of Residential Energy Services Demand: The Portuguese Case for 2030, 25-28 August. International Conference IAEE - 11th IAEE European Conference Energy Economy, Policies and Supply Security: Surviving the Global Economic Crisis.. , Vilnius, Lithuania: International Association of Energy Economics
2011
Seixas, J, Fortes P, Simões S, Dias L, Gouveia JP, Mauricio B.  2011.  Greenhouse gas emissions cap: a new paradigm for energy dependence in the long term?, 19-23 June 34th IAEE International Conference - Institutions, Efficiency and Evolving Energy Technologies.. , Stockholm
Seixas, J, Simões S, Kanudia A, Gargiulo M, Dias L, Gouveia JP, Fortes P.  2011.  Electric Vehicles in the European Union: Conditions for Success, Impacts on the Power System and on CO2 Emissions, 6-8 July. IEW - International Energy Workshop 2011,. , Standford, USA.
Simões, S, Seixas J, Fortes P, Dias L, Gouveia JP, Mauricio B.  2011.  The medium-term role of renewable energy sources in climate change mitigation in Portugal, 9-13 May. WREC 2011 - World Renewable Energy Congress 2011. , Linkoping, Sweded
2012
Gouveia, JP, Fortes P, Seixas J.  2012.  Projections of energy services demand for residential buildings: Insights from a bottom-up methodology. Energy. 47:430–442., Number 1: Elsevier Ltd AbstractWebsite

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Gouveia, JP, Dias L, Fortes P, Seixas J.  2012.  TIMES_PT: Integrated Energy System Modeling. 1st Int'l Workshop on Information Technology for Energy Applications (IT4ENERGY'2012). , Lisbon, Portugal: Vol. 923 of CEUR Workshop Proceedings, ISSN 1613-0073
Kanudia, A, Boavida D, van den Broek M, Cabal H, Gargiulo M, Gouveia JP, Labriet M, Seixas J, Tosato GC.  2012.  CCS infrastructure development scenarios for the integrated Iberian Peninsula and Morocco energy system, 18-22 November. GHGT_11, Conference session #9 on “CCS technology assessment and system integration”. , Kyoto International Conference Center, Japan
van den Broek, M, Mesquita P, Carneiro J, Silva J, Berghout N, Ramirez A, Gouveia JP, Seixas J, Cabal H, Martinez R, Rimi A, Boavida D, Tosato GC.  2012.  Region specific challenges of a CO2 pipeline infrastructure in the West Mediterranean area - Model results versus stakeholder views., 18-22 November. GHGT_11, on “CCS technology assessment and system integration”. , Kyoto International Conference Center, Japan.
Dias, L, Fortes P, Gouveia J, Seixas J.  2012.   Potencial de Eficiência Energética em Portugal para cenários de Longo Prazo, 22 June. PCEEE – Portugal em Conferência para uma Ecónomia Energéticamente Eficiente. , Coimbra, Portugal: Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade de Coimbra
Gouveia, JP.  2012.  Forecasting energy for residential buildings: contributions from a bottom-up methodology of energy services demand, 22-24 March. Workshop on Energy and Society. , Lisbon, Portugal: Institute of Social Sciences (ICS-UL)
Fortes, P, Seixas J, Dias L, Gouveia JP.  2012.  Low Carbon Roadmap for Portugal: Technology Analysis, 9-12 September. 2th IAEE European Conference, Energy challenge and environmental sustainability. , Venice, Italy: International Association of Energy Economics
Gouveia, JP, Seixas J, Labriet M, Fortes P, Gargiulo M.  2012.  The Role of CCS in the Iberian Peninsula: Contribution for a regional roadmap, 9-12 September. 12th IAEE European Conference, Energy challenge and environmental sustainability. , Venice, Italy: International Association of Energy Economics
2013
Gouveia, JP, Seixas J, Labriet M, Fortes P, Gargiulo M.  2013.  Prospective scenarios for the adoption of CCS technologies in the Iberian Peninsula. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments. 2:31–41. AbstractWebsite

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2014
Gouveia, JP, Dias L, Martins I, Seixas J.  2014.  Effects of renewables penetration on the security of Portuguese electricity supply. Applied Energy. 123:438–447. AbstractWebsite

The increase of renewables in power sector, together with the increase of their electricity share in final energy consumption, is changing our perception about energy security with diverse and contradictory statements. The Portuguese security of electricity supply is analyzed in this study by comparing selected indicators for 2. years before and after the high increase of onshore wind since 2005. Our goal is to find how the security of electricity supply was impacted by the penetration of renewables, taking a supply chain approach. Our analysis highlights that the penetration of renewables has decreased the energy dependence of the power sector by more than 20% between 2004 and 2011, while risks related to the concentration of natural gas suppliers and to the still-high share of fossil fuels suffering from price volatility are discussed. We observed a significant improvement in power interconnections with Spain, as well as an increase of the de-rated generation capacity margin, allowing proper management of renewable power intermittency if necessary, thereby improving power security. Although the share of intermittent renewables almost quadrupled in total installed capacity between those years, the indicators reveal an improvement in the quality of transport and distribution when delivering electricity to end-users. Although electricity prices increased, mainly due to taxes, the lack of energy efficiency is an aspect deserving improvement to alleviate the pressure on electricity security, mainly at high peak demands.

Gregório, V, Seixas J, Robinson D, Long G, Gouveia JP.  2014.  Energy Efficiency Challenges: The Linkage between the Past and the Future, for Low Carbon Historic Centres in Portugal. Urban Futures Squaring Circles: Proceedings, International Conference on Urban Futures Squaring Circles 2050. , Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon and Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation
Gouveia, JP, Bilo N, Gargiulo M, Giannakidis G, Gregório V, Duncan I, Nunes V, Robinson D, Seixas J, Valentim A.  2014.  InSMART - Integrative Smart City Planning - The case of Households in Évora. Urban Futures Squaring Circles: Proceedings, International Conference on Urban Futures Squaring Circles 2050,. , Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation: Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon and Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation Abstract

European policy has acknowledged the significance of local and regional communities for the
deployment of new low carbon technologies and their potential for sustainable energy production and use.
Several initiatives and programmes (e.g. Covenant of Mayors) have been set up to engage European cities in the
effort towards a low carbon future. At the same time, there is a critical need to improve comprehensive city
planning driven by an integrated approach and focused on cost benefit assessment towards sustainable energy
use. Hence, innovative tools and models to assess and perform in-depth analysis of the alternative measures
towards efficient energy use, will help pave the way to fully capture the potential of each city in the most
efficient (economically, socially and technically) way.
The InSMART concept brings together four European cities: Évora (Portugal), Cesena (Italy), Nottingham (UK)
and Trikala (Greece), and scientific organizations of these countries, to establish a methodology for enhancing
sustainable planning for city needs through an integrative and multidisciplinary planning approach, aiming to
developing detailed sustainable energy action plans. Such an approach will identify the optimum mix of short,
medium and long term projects and investments, addressing the efficiency of energy flows across various city
sectors with regards to economic, environmental and social criteria and will highlight priority actions.
Tools and models, like Geographic Information System, buildings models (CitySim and EnergyPlus) and
transport-based energy and carbon model, as well as a technological partial equilibrium energy model (TIMES),
are used to analyse, all the relevant sectors (buildings, industries, transports, waste and water management).
Furthermore, the cities buildings stocks are being characterized through an extensive 110-question survey
(around 410 door-to-door interviews) and will be modelled through a typology approach. Four hundred 20-
question surveys are also being carried out to evaluate transport and mobility patterns, supported on travel diaries and fulfilling different quotas for several variables (geographic location, days of the week, age and working
status) in order to assure representativeness of the data collected.
The main differences between rural and urban areas results from the building surveys and high-resolution
electricity consumption from smart meters for the Portuguese city of Évora are highlighted.

Gouveia, JP, Seixas J, Bilo N, Valentim A, Nunes V, Giannakidis G, Robinson D, Irons D, Gargiulo M.  2014.  Integrative Smart City Planning - Buildings and Mobility in Évora. 4th IAEE European Energy Conference - Sustainable Energy Policy and Strategies for Europe. , LUISS University, Rome, Italy.
2015
Glynn, J, Fortes P, Krook-Riekkola A, Labriet M, Vielle M, Kypreos S, Lehtilä A, Mischke P, Dai H, Gargiulo M, Helgesen PI, Kober T, Summerton P, Merven B, Selosse S, Karlsson K, Strachan N, ÓGallachóir B.  2015.  Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System—Global Perspectives. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. 30(George Giannakidis, Labriet, Maryse, Brian ÓGallachóir, GianCarlo Tosato, Eds.).:333-358.: Springer International Publishing Abstract
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Glynn, J, Fortes P, Krook-Riekkola A, Labriet M, Vielle M, Kypreos S, Lehtilä A, Mischke P, Dai H, Gargiulo M, Helgesen PI, Kober T, Summerton P, Merven B, Selosse S, Karlsson K, Strachan N, ÓGallachóir B.  2015.  Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System—National Perspectives. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. 30(George Giannakidis, Labriet, Maryse, Brian ÓGallachóir, GianCarlo Tosato, Eds.).:359-387.: Springer International Publishing Abstract
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Chiodi, A, Taylor PG, Seixas J, Simões S, Fortes P, Gouveia JP, Dias L, ÓGallachóir B.  2015.  Energy Policies Influenced by Energy Systems Modelling—Case Studies in UK, Ireland, Portugal and G8. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. 30(George Giannakidis, Labriet, Maryse, Brian ÓGallachóir, GianCarlo Tosato, Eds.).:15-41.: Springer International Publishing Abstract
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Kempener, R, Assoumou E, Chiodi A, Ciorba U, Gaeta M, Gielen D, Hamasaki H, Kanudia A, Kober T, Labriet M, Maïzi N, ÓGallachóir B, Saygin D, Seixas J, Wagner N, Wright E.  2015.  A Global Renewable Energy Roadmap: Comparing Energy Systems Models with IRENA’s REmap 2030 Project. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. 30(George Giannakidis, Labriet, Maryse, Brian ÓGallachóir, GianCarlo Tosato, Eds.).:43-67.: Springer International Publishing Abstract
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Nijs, W, Simoes S, Sgobbi A, Ruiz-Castello P, Thiel C, Giannakidis G, Mantzaris J, Tigas K, Dimitroulas D, Georgilakis P, Vournas C.  2015.  Improved Representation of the European Power Grid in Long Term Energy System Models: Case Study of JRC-EU-TIMES. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. 30(George Giannakidis, Labriet, Maryse, Brian ÓGallachóir, GianCarlo Tosato, Eds.).:201-222.: Springer International Publishing Abstract
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Seixas, J, Simões S, Dias L, Kanudia A, Fortes P, Gargiulo M.  2015.  Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling. Energy Policy. 80(May 2015):165-176. AbstractWebsite

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered alternatives to internal combustion engines due to their energy efficiency and contribution to CO2 mitigation. The adoption of EVs depends on consumer preferences, including cost, social status and driving habits, although it is agreed that current and expected costs play a major role. We use a partial equilibrium model that minimizes total energy system costs to assess whether EVs can be a cost-effective option for the consumers of each EU27 member state up to 2050, focusing on the impact of different vehicle investment costs and CO2 mitigation targets. We found that for an EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction cap of 40% and 70% by 2050 vis-à-vis 1990 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are cost-effective in the EU only by 2030 and only if their costs are 30% lower than currently expected. At the EU level, vehicle costs and the capability to deliver both short- and long-distance mobility are the main drivers of BEV deployment. Other drivers include each state’s national mobility patterns and the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation options, both in the transport sector, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or biofuels, and in other sectors, such as renewable electricity.

Gouveia, JP, Seixas J, Mendes L, Shiming L.  2015.  Looking Deeper into Residential Electricity Consumption Profiles: The Case of Évora, 19-22 May. EEM15. 12th International Conference on the European Energy market. , Lisbon