A scenario is a policy analysis tool that describes a possible set of future conditions. The most useful scenarios (for corporations, for policy decision makers) are those that display the conditions of important variables over time. In this approach, the quantitative underpinning enriches the narrative evolution of conditions or evolution of the variables; narratives describe the important events and developments that shape the variables. In terms of innovative methods for policy analysis, the foresight and scenario building methods can be an interesting reference for social sciences. Some examples of these exercises will be present in this paper, either related to vision in science and technology developments, social and technological futures, or related to aggregated indicators on human development. Two cases (Japan and Germany) are held on behalf the ministries of science and education (respectively, MEXT and BMBF), and another with the support of United Nations.

This paper summarises the methodological approach and main results of the MARHE project (Employment and Human Resources in the Fisheries Socio-Economic System). This project had as its main aim the search for alternative futures for the fisheries sector in Portugal, with particular attention being paid to the human resources situation and the working and living conditions of the fisheries-dependent populations in the coastal areas. This is a particularly interesting case, since fisheries were once an important activity and they are now in deep recession, even though it is generally recognised that the future utilisation of maritime resources offer an immense potential. As part of the research, a Delphi exercise was implemented involving in two successive stages some of the leading actors and experts dealing with the sector in Portugal. Other initiatives were held in the context of the MARHE project providing direct and indirect inputs to the scenarios and recommendations that were put forward in the sequence of the Delphi exercise. Overall the activities described in the paper contributed to the mobilisation of major actors and to discussions that may have practical implication for the future of the sector, if certain conditions are now met in the follow up to the project.

In this paper will be discussed different types of scenarios and the aims for using scenarios. Normaly they are being used by organisations due to the need to anticipate processes, to support policy-making and to understand the complexities of relations. Such organisations can be private companies, R&D organisations and networks of organisations, or even by some public administration institutions. Some cases will be discussed as the methods for ongoing scenario-building process (Shell Internacional). Scenarios should anticipate possible relations among social actors as in the Triple Helix Model, and is possible to develop strategic intelligence in the innovation process that would enable the construction of scenarios. Such processes can be assessed. The focus will be made in relation to the steps chosen for the WORKS scenarios. In this case is there a model of work changes that can be used for foresight? Differences according to sectors were found, as well on other dimensions. Problems of assessment are analysed with specific application to the scenario construction methods.

The design of jobs is defined and its different implications. These aspects must be taken into consideration when applied to new automated systems, once it can occur workers in-adaptations to certain type of activity and tasks. Other concepts that emerge from this are the mental workload, stress, work accidents, shift work, or the physical environment that can reveal to become determinant in the process of job design. That means also the organizational design. In this sense, the manufacturing, organizational and individual dimensions, are the most meaningful in the mentioned process of organizational design. Are analyzed different application cases of robotized systems and their social effects, mostly those that are related to the dimensions of working conditions. Are particularly analyzed the new risk situations that occur with the use of robotic systems. One concludes on the need to take into consideration qualitative variables in the definition and design of robotic cells, jobs and production systems. This consideration influences directly in the labor productivity, in such way that the development of these methodologies of analysis can be considered as integrating the processes of technological innovation in manufacturing.

In this working paper is presented information on the Portuguese labour market developed with the support of the European project WORKS-“Work organisation and restructuring in the knowledge society”. Is still a on the process article and thus commentaries are welcome. The structure is based on the following topics: a) The employment policy (Time regimes - time use, flexibility, part-time work, work-life balance -, and the work contracts regimes – wages, contract types, diversity); b) Education and training (skilling outcomes, rules on retraining and further training, employability schemes, transferability of skills); c) Equal opportunities (relevance of equal opportunity regulation for restructuring outcomes, the role of gender and age regulation); d) Restructuring effects (policy on transfer of personnel, policy on redundancies, and participation or voice in restructuring).

In this working paper is presented information on the Portuguese labour market developed with the support of the European project WORKS-“Work organisation and restructuring in the knowledge society”. Is still a on the process article and thus commentaries are welcome. The structure is based on the following topics: a) The employment policy (Time regimes - time use, flexibility, part-time work, work-life balance -, and the work contracts regimes – wages, contract types, diversity); b) Education and training (skilling outcomes, rules on retraining and further training, employability schemes, transferability of skills); c) Equal opportunities (relevance of equal opportunity regulation for restructuring outcomes, the role of gender and age regulation); d) Restructuring effects (policy on transfer of personnel, policy on redundancies, and participation or voice in restructuring).

Working teams in enterprise environment are considered as the most advanced forms of work organisation. This means the forms that can improve productivity quality of working life. Nevertheless, it prevails a slow development and dissemination of these advanced organisational forms in European companies. The reason for that lays in a complex linkage factors from social values to the economical pressures. But other factors are also related to the national systems of education training, to the different systems of industrial relations and technology policy.

The most significative text of the European Commission on the construction of a strategy for an Information Society is, undoubtly the document on “Job Opportunities in the Information Society”. The major dimension of the change process was not anymore the technological evolution one. Information society should integrate the social-economical dimensions with industries that use information and communication products and services, beside those of so-called “Information Society industries”. Is not only this sector that is growing in terms of employment, but also the other sectors can be also important ICT users. Employment in the information society leads the employment growth in EU. In this study are analysed the different national programs and strategies, and with particular relevance the Portuguese case.

The most significative text of the European Commission on the construction of a strategy for an Information Society is, undoubtly the document on “Job Opportunities in the Information Society”. The major dimension of the change process was not anymore the technological evolution one. Information society should integrate the social-economical dimensions with industries that use information and communication products and services, beside those of so-called “Information Society industries”. Is not only this sector that is growing in terms of employment, but also the other sectors can be also important ICT users. Employment in the information society leads the employment growth in EU. In this study are analysed the different national programs and strategies, and with particular relevance the Portuguese case.

The innovation in the employment behaviour is particularly clear in what concerns the sector composition of the employment changes: the persistent decrease of the industrial employment (even if within a framework of some recovery of the industrial product), a slight expansion in the employment on the tertiary sector, and an important growth of the employment in the construction and public works activities. We can identify then a considerable sector mutation concerning the industrial and the services sectors but also a growth of the atypical forms of employment. Portugal continues not being able to respond to the labour market needs (improvement in the education sector is critical to the catch-up process). The Portuguese cases studied point out to organisational changes supported by ICT, but not determined/induced by it. For most of the changes that were recently developed, ICT had an important role. We didn’t found explicit technological determinism in the relation between ICT and social exclusion.

Some programs and research networks are dealing with topics associated to the automtive sector and they observe one of the most significative sectores of modern economies. Because of that is so interesting to forecast some possible changes in an horizon of 10 to 20 years. But this exercse must not be centred only on technical aspects of automobile construction, or on the design, or even on the mobility systems. How one can face these problems, and how it can be so decisivelly important, is what we will try to answer in this paper that resumes some of the debates on the foresight exercises in Germany (Futur) and on the automotive sector in Portugal (WorTiS).

The foresight and scenario building methods can be an interesting reference for social sciences, especially in terms of innovative methods for labour process analysis. A scenario – as a central concept for the prospective analysis – can be considered as a rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world. It can be a useful tool for policy-makers to grasp problems clearly and comprehensively, and to better pinpoint challenges as well as opportunities in an overall framework. The features of the foresight methods are being used in some labour policy making experiences. Case studies developed in Portugal will be presented, and some conclusions will be drawn in order to organise a set of principles for foresight analysis applied to the European project WORKS on the work organisation re-structuring in the knowledge society, and on the work design methods for new management structures of virtual organisations.

No abstract is available for this item.

One can assist to significant changes in the organisation of manufacturing systems during the last years. Lean production, network enterprise or the virtual enterprises are reference concepts of the re-organisation of manufacturing systems. Some authors mention a new enterprise paradigm, of generalisation of intelligent manufacture, organised in networks and assisted by information and communication technologies. The first part of the paper develops a critical approach to the illusion connected to these concepts, calling the attention to the diversity of the type of relationships among firms. If virtual enterprises (VE) are networks of firms with intensive usage of ICT, one can verify a predominance of a technicist perspective. This one considers that the development of VEs is a technological problem, of development and management of information systems, and of entrepreneurial share of different databases. Sociology can be useful, even fundamental in an anthropocentric approach. The last part of the paper is on the Portuguese situation in the automobile sector, approaching the types of entrepreneurial organisation.

Some programs and research networks are dealing with topics associated to the automtive sector and they observe one of the most significative sectores of modern economies. Because of that is so interesting to forecast some possible changes in an horizon of 10 to 20 years. But this exercse must not be centred only on technical aspects of automobile construction, or on the design, or even on the mobility systems. How one can face these problems, and how it can be so decisivelly important, is what we will try to answer in this paper that resumes some of the debates on the foresight exercises in Germany (Futur) and on the automotive sector in Portugal (WorTiS).

No abstract is available for this item.

At the last National Conference of Industrial Sociology in Portugal (in March 1999) was presented a paper on the topic of “foresight as a technology and employment policy instrument” (A.B. Moniz) where there was a reference to the need of development of this kind of tools and instruments. This need is clear when one should neutralize the negative effects of such policies, and could support the positive influences, especially with the main aims of improvement of quality of working life. Thus, is today possible to make a first balance of the application in Portugal of a type of foresight analysis exercise: the Delphi method. After some of the uses of this method in Portugal on the fisheries socio-economical system and on the relation between information society and employment, we present in this paper a first assessment of such experiments and present some recommendations for future uses of this foresight technique. We conclude that they must be applied within the context of socio-economical perspectives, and not only the technological ones, although they should include that dimension.

Technology assessment (TA) had never been treated as a relevant topic within the International Sociological Association (ISA) before. The first steps towards establishing this association were taken in 1948, at the initiative of the Social Science Department of UNESCO. Its formal foundation was in 1949. The World Congress of Sociology in Japan was hopefully the beginning of continuous integration of TA into the thematic sessions within the ISA.

The socio-economic subsystem encompassing fisheries may be defined as including not only the harvesting sector but also several related activities occurring both upstream (shipbuilding, gear manufacture) and downstream (processing, distribution and trade). But these closely interrelated economic activities can also be set within a much broader system which would include the ecological, institutional and political influences which frame economic behaviour. The value of this broader conceptualisation is that it treats fisheries not as an isolated and independent economic activity but as part of a more holistic and complex system. This broader perspective is of particular significance when attempting to examine the concept of regional dependence. The socio-economic subsystem for fisheries is dominated by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). And Peniche emerges as one of Portugal’s most important fishing ports whether measured in terms of the volume of landings or the total numbers of fishermen. It also has one of the highest levels of fisheries dependence of all coastal municipalities in Portugal with over 20% of its workforce currently engaged in fisheries related employment, faces a daunting and uncertain future. The social fabric of fisheries dependent communities also suffers serious damage; once again, the technocratic approach to management has no solutions to offer. It is essential, therefore, to turn away from the existing approach and to develop instead new forms of intervention; in short, to provide a new vision. This implies change not only to the policy process but also in the attitudes of the social actors and in the preoccupations of fisheries related research. An integrated approach is required based on participative action and the development of an integrated information network.

Working teams in enterprise environment are considered as the most advanced forms of work organisation. This means the forms that can improve productivity quality of working life. Nevertheless, it prevails a slow development and dissemination of these advanced organisational forms in European companies. The reason for that lays in a complex linkage factors from social values to the economical pressures. But other factors are also related to the national systems of education training, to the different systems of industrial relations and technology policy.

The 2nd International Conference on "Foresight Studies on Work in the Knowledge Society" was organised by IET, the Research Centre on Enterprise and Work Innovation, at the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of "Universidade Nova de Lisboa" (FCT-UNL), and took place on January 26 and 27 of 2009 with the support of the European project WORKS-Work Organisation Re-structuring in the Knowledge Society (financed by the European Commission, and co-ordinated by HIVA Leuven)

Portugal had only very few foresight exercises on the automobile sector, and the most recent one was a survey held in a project on work organisation systems in the automobile industry, its recent historical paths and the special strategies of location of companies (the WorTiS project). This involved several teams with different disciplinary backgrounds and from two Portuguese universities. The provisional main results of the first round of a Delphi survey held in Portugal on the automotive sector were already published, but a further analysis was not yet done. This foresight survey was done under the WorTiS project, developed in 2004 by IET – Research Centre on Enterprise and Work Innovation (at FCT-UNL), and financed by the Portuguese Ministry of Science and Technology. Some of this experience on foresight analysis is also been transferred to other projects, namely the WORKS project on work organisation restructuring in the knowledge society that received the support from EC and still is running. The majority of experts considered having an average of less knowledge in almost all the scenario topics presented. This means that information on the automotive industry is not spread enough among academics or experts in related fields (regional scientists, innovation economists, engineers, sociologists). Some have a good knowledge but in very specialised fields. Others have expertise on foresight, or macroeconomics, or management sciences, but feel insecure on issues related with futures of automobile sector. Nevertheless, we considered specially the topics where the experts considered themselves to have some knowledge. There were no “irrelevant” topics considered as such by the expert panel. There are also no topics that are not considered a need for co-operation. The lack of technological infrastructures was not considered as a hindered factor for the accomplishment of any scenario. The experts’ panel considered no other international competence besides US, Japan or Ge

In this paper one presents and discuss the hybridation concept using some aspect that integrate it, as the physical architecture of automated systems (hardware), the information system that integrates that architecture and the working places design. Analyzed are also the inter-dependences of those aspects, and we have as a reference the flexible production and assembly system existent at UNINOVA-CRI. The focus is made on possible problems that can occur with the use of possible development of those systems, namely: a) full automation with centralized human control, b) non-automated process of shop-floor work with a system “one man, one machine”, c) hybrid system of automated cells with “elastic” human jobs.

No abstract is available for this item.